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DigOpp Newsletter - October 2023
Assessing The Impact of Bitcoin ETF Expectations
In case you missed it, crypto prices are up a lot.
This recent price action has been driven by expectations of a spot bitcoin ETF approval, but this rally was initially launched by a rumor which proved to be false.
Below is a chart showing the rolling 7-day change in Bitcoin’s price, with “bitcoin etf” Google search trend overlaid. Clearly, price momentum shifted to the upside as the ETF interest ticked up, as indicated by google search trends.
While this rally was initially set off by a rumor, the market clearly expects an approval.
When could that actually happen? The below table shows that the SEC has made it a habit of delaying approvals (check out this tweet). Most of the ETFs will be hitting their third deadline in January, so the market is likely expecting a decision by then.
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